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November 01, 2007

Business Strategy Note

Here are my midterm notes for my Business Strategy class at Kellogg PTMBA program.

Sum up all concepts


Firms may use their resources to shape the competitive game in a way that makes the five forces more attractive.
 
Value Creation and Capture
Economic Profit = (AP-AC) Q
Where AC always includes opportunity cost.
 
‘B’ Consumer’s max willingness to pay
Consumer Surplus = ‘B’ – ‘P’  = value the consumer captures
Value Created = ‘B’ – ‘C’ = total value created
Firm Value Captured = ‘P’ – ‘C’
 
AC curve – Quantity X axis, Average Cost Y axis
Productivity frontier curve – ‘C’ on X axis, ‘B’ on Y axis, 

5 Force Analysis

 
Rivalry: large number of firms, high inventory costs, high fixed costs, lack of differentiation, slow industry growth, high strategic stakes, diverse competitors, capacity in large increments, lack of switching costs
 
Threat of Substitutes: are there substitute products?
 
Barriers to entry: economies of scale, high capital needs, incumbent reputation, switiching costs, learning curve, limited access to distribution, government regualtions, network effects, proprietary technology
 
Supply Power: few suppliers, few substitues for input, costly to switch, suppliers have many other customers, input is more important for buyers, supplier is able to forward integrate
 
Buyer Power:  one buyer purchased a large share of my output, buyer earns low profits, buyer purchased few other products, buy has full information, easy to switch, buyer can backwards integrate (produce it themselves)

Resource Based View

 
TEST1: Is it distinctly superior? Can it generate profits? Greater ‘B’-‘C’ in market where it will be used?
TEST2: Can it be reproduced, moved, or imitated? Truely unique? Legal restrictions? Histroical dependence (brand)? (look for isolating mechanicsm also called ex-post barrier) such as learning curve, firm reputation, switching costs, firm-consumer relationship, network effect
TEST3: Is this firm the best economic use of resource? Is it cospecialized? Transfer cost higher than its value? Otherwise well pay more than its value to try to keep it, Am I able to aquire the resource for less than the expected total value to me?
 
Appropriable quasi Rent = value of resouce to us – value of resource to next highest bidder, most rent we can capture
Ex-ante limits to competition – anything that prevents the price bid from reaching full value of the resource
 
It is hard to manage or create resources into existance, if you can do it why can’t anybody?

Game Theory

Main parts: players, actions, payoffs

Compeition vs. cooperation, the effect of commitment to a course of action such as sunk costs

 

Industry level effects – least profitable in one industry may still be more than best profitable in antoher industry

To determine Nash equlibrium, where no one has incentive to move to another decision, find the dominant or at least the dominated strategies

Cooperation can be hard when:lots of firms, no history of trust, hidden prices, and bad market conditions

June 27, 2006

The Right Game: Using Game Theory to Shape Strategy - article by A. Brandenburger and B. Nalebuff - blog by Karl Janowski

Two main types of games:

  • Structured (rules based)
  • Unstructured (open market)

Business is a combo of both.

 

In unstructured actions you cannot take away more than you bring to the table.

 

Egocentric – focus on your position in the game

Allocentric – focus on other’s positions in the game

 

Business strategy is about shaping the game you play as much as playing the game (think of all the companies that have lobbied the government to “change the rules” of the game)

 

Business is not a war, there are many times you may op for a win-lose strategy but several other companies have made plenty of money working on a win-win strategy.

 

Three advantages of Win-Win

  • More opportunities because less explored
  • Easier to get cooperation
  • Imitation helps

Value Net – (this sounds a lot like Porter's Five Forces)

  • Customers and Suppliers,
  • Complementary Products and Substitute Products

Five Elements of Game Theory (PARTS)

  • Players
  • Added Value – what each player brings to the game
  • Rules – how the game is played
  • Tactics – moves that shape how one plays the game and perception of the game
  • Scope – boundaries that sometimes can be changed 

Changing Players – Coke and Pepsi example with Nutrasweet (they created a rival to Nutrasweet just for negotiation purposes, they didn't contract with the rival, the rival should have asked Pepsi and Coke to pay them just for exisiting), Pay me to play

 

Create Cheap Complements – Software companies that let any company create hardware

 

Changing Added Value – raise your own value (or protect your current value) or lower others (card match game where you burn matching cards to raise the value of yours - Did I read something similar in a judo-economics article?)

 

Change Rules – like “one price to all” rule , or have “last bid” clauses in contracts

 

Tactics: Change Perception – show the effects of a price war by starting a small one to prevent a big one

 

Change the scope – Nintendo didn’t follow Sega quickly into the 16-bit market so it could prolong its profits in the 8-bit market

 

Traps to Avoid

  • Thinking you can’t change the game
  • Thinking your change has to cause a win-lose situation
  • Thinking you have to do something that others can’t do
  • Failing to see the whole game
  • Failing to think you’ll need to change the game again after you’ve done so already

This article was published in Harvard Business Review (R95402).

June 20, 2006

What is Strategy - article by Michael Porter - blog by Karl Janowski

 “Strategy is the creation of a unique and valuable position, involving a different set of activities (from your competitors)”

 “The essence of strategy is choosing to perform activities differently than rivals do” 

Operational Effectiveness – performing similar tasks better than your competitors

Strategy – performing different tasks or similar activities in different ways than your competitors 

Main Strategies 
Generic Strategies: Low Cost Leadership, Differentiation, Large or Small Segment Focus

More Detailed Versions of Generic

  • Variety-based positioning – producing a subset of products or services (Jiffy Lube oil only), does not rely on customer preferences
  • Needs-based positioning – targeting a segment of customers (Ikea – all home furnishings for customers) ), does not rely on customer preferences
  • Access-based positioning – targeting customers who need different activities to reach them
 
Porter’s Five Market Forces
  • Threat of new Entry
  • Intensity of rivalry among existing market
  • Pressure from substitute products
  • Bargaining power of buyers
  • Bargaining power of suppliers

*Many people add that government is the sixth force

Productivity Frontier – a curve of buyer value (Y axis from low to high) versus cost position (X axis from high to low)


Because of rapid diffusion of best practices operational effectives does not span the test of time. It is not a strategy!

 
 

Player 2

 
 

MAKE Product

Outsource

Player 1

MAKE Product

MM

MO

Outsource

OM

OO

 

I like to think of this in Game Theory terms. If there are two companies and both have the decision to make or outsource Product X. If they both choose to make Product X themselves then the only advantage Player 1 can gain is to be more operationally effective than Player 2.  Similarly if both outsource the one that finds the best partner wins. In both of these cases it is operational effectiveness (which is easier to copy) rather than strategy that determines the outcome of the competition (in game theory this would be clear by the payout).

 Two Types of Imitators
  • Reposititioners – move to a new position
  • Straddlers – hold same position but change to match benefits

Tradeoffs prevent imitation by creating the need for choice between two positions

Tradeoffs Occur for Three Reasons

  • Reputation and Image
  • Activities themselves
  • Limits on internal coordination and control

Quality versus Cost tradeoff is only false when you are behind on the productivity frontier or the frontier shifts outward

“Strategy is making tradeoffs in competing”

“Strategy is choosing what not to do” - Without tradeoffs you could hold all positions at the same time. Tradeoffs therefore dictate strategy

Strategy fitness – all tradeoffs support the same position, activities support each other, lists like “core competencies”, “critical resources” and “key success factors” normally go against fitness 

Three Types of Strategy Fitness

  • Simple Consistency – among activities (e.g. all are aligned on low cost strategy)
  • Reinforcing Activities – activities make the other activities stronger
  • Optimization of effort –

 “Strategy is creating fitness across a company’s activities”

What Prevents a Sound Strategy, (decreases fitness)

  • Misguided View of competition
  • Organizational Failures
  • Desire to grow – forces broadening of position over deepening it

Many go after operational effectiveness because it is tangible and measurable

Extend your uniqueness

June 15, 2006

Blue Ocean Strategy - book by W. Kim and R. Mauborgne - blog by Karl Janowski

Red Ocean – markets where there is competition

Blue Ocean – new markets

Example: Cirque Du Soleil over a  normal circus.

Stop trying to beat competition but instead make them irrelevant.

Industries never stand still.

First Principle of Blue Ocean: Reconstruct market boundaries

Value Innovation -  is the cornerstone of Blue Ocean Strategy, drive costs down while driving value up (like cirque du Soleil they removed animals from a circus driving down costs while driving performance value up)

Strategy Canvas – what are the key factors in an industry, where does the premium players line up?, where do the low cost players line up?, each player has a value curve that they are offering , shows three things: industry factors, competitors strategy, and your value curve all in the same place

Four Action Framework - what can you remove, greatly reduce, add,  greatly increase to be on a different canvas (create an entirely new value curve) than your competitor? Create a four corner grid for yourself.
 
Three Characteristics of a Good Strategy
  • Focus of the value curve – do not diffuse across all categories
  • Shape of value curve diverges from competitors
  • Clear tagline
 
Beware
  • Over delivery without payback
  • An Incoherent Strategy
  • Strategic Contradictions
  • Internal versus External Market Driven
 
Six Paths that will force you into Red Oceans
  • Trying to be best in your currently “defined” marketplace
  • Striving to stand out in a narrow scope of your currently “defined” marketplace
  • Focus on the same buyer groups
  • Scope of products and services defined by industry
  • Accept industries functional or emotional orientation
  • Focus on same point in time and on competitive threats in their strategy

Substitute products – offer different form but fill same functionality

Alternative products – different forms but fill same purpose (restaurant or cinema fill the night out purpose)

Strategic groups within markets – luxury versus economy car builders don’t compete with each other, many companies look across strategic groups to create blue oceans

Purchaser, User, and Influencer of purchasing decisions are all important and all three hold different ideas of value

Untapped values are normally hidden in complementary services (cinema with a babysitter)


Three principles for trends, they need to be:

  • decisive to your business
  • irreversible
  • have a clear trajectory 

Second Principle of Blue Ocean: Focus on the big picture, not numbers in your strategy

 
To Create a Blue Ocean Strategy
  • Draw your “as-is” canvas
  • Look to the six paths, get in the field yourself, find the value
  • Create a new canvas based on opportunities in the six paths (eliminate, create, reduce, improve)
  • Close the gap
 

Never outsource your eyes.

 
PMS Mapping
  • Pioneer – pursue Blue Ocean,
  • Migrators – Best in class Red Ocean
  • Settlers – pursue Red Ocean

What is your portfolio PMS map? Revenue, profit, and market share cannot tell the future because the environment changes too fast. Instead use value and innovation to predict the future.

Build your strategy around a picture.
 
Third Principle of Blue Ocean: Reach beyond existing demand

Instead of looking for customers, look at non customers

 3 tiers of non customers
  • those at the edge of your market
  • those that refuse your market
  • those that have never thought of your market as an option

Look at their commonalities and find the largest group of untapped customers

Fourth Principle of Blue Ocean: Get the strategic sequence right: buyer utility then price then cost then adoption
Buyer utility – price = customer value

You should not allow cost to drive price.  

Buyer Utility: bells and whistles are not utility 

Buyer Utility Map (Matrix) – 6 Levels versus 6 Levers, for each lever ask which level is the greatest block to buyer utility

Six Levels of Buyer Experience

  • Purchase
  • Delivery
  • Use
  • Supplements – Do you need other products to make this work?
  • Maintain
  • Dispose

Six Levers of Utility

  • Customer Productivity
  • Simplicity
  • Convenience
  • Risk
  • Fun and Image
  • Environmental Friendliness


Price

Knowing the price that captures the mass of the market is becoming more important, volumes are becoming more important in profitability, and many product exhibit the network effect (like the telephone, the more people that use it the more useful it is)

Rival good – cannot be copied by competitor, example an employee that works for one company cannot work for another

Non-Rival good – ideas that can be copied by your competitor

Price Corridor of the Mass

  • Same form offerings
  • Different form same function
  • Different form and function, same objective

Plot (above) versus price tiers and find volume of customers at each tier

Factor in the excludability of your product

Excludability – the ability to exclude your competitors to using your concept, ideas, and strategy

Use Best Tier for Pricing


Cost

Derive Cost from target price minus the profit margin you want

Cost Levers

  • Streamline Operations – MFG and Distro cost reductions
  • Partnering
  • Change the Pricing model of the industry: time-share, slice-share, equity interest instead of cash,
Adoption

Three adopters – employees, business partners, and the public

Fifth principle: Overcome key hurdles to execute the strategy  
Execution’s four hurdles: cognitive, resources,  motivation, politics

Tipping point leadership – there are people, acts, and activities that influence a disproportionate amount of influence in any organization, change the tipping points and the rest will follow

Cognitive -“Seeing is believing” quickest way to change is to show positive or negative stimuli directly to the people who need to change, show the problem or solution to the stakeholders 

Resources

  • Hot Spots – low resource input but high performance gain
  • Cold Spots – high resource input but low performance gain
  • Horse Trading – leverage excess resources from one area to another (outside of your normal boundaries)

Move resources from cold spots to hot spots and horse trade outside of your normal resources your excess


Motivation

  • Kingpins – key influencers and natural leaders
  • Fishbowls – place kingpins in a transparent fishbowl so everyone can see their progress base it on transparency, inclusion and a fair process
  • Atomization – break strategy into small goals so no one can say its not attainabl

Politics

Get a strong number two on your team

Who are my biggest opponents? What is their argument?

 

Sixth principle: To build people’s trust and commitment to the strategy you need to build in execution from the start.

 

Need a fair process so people don’t feel coerced.


“People care as much about how a decision was produced as what the decision was”


Fair Process

  • Engages – show you want input from everywhere
  • Explains – shows everyone why this is important
  • Expectation clarity – what is expected out of everyone

Commitment, trust, and voluntary cooperation are intangible capital.

Imitation Barriers to Blue Ocean

  • It does not make sense as traditional strategy
  • Brand image conflict helps prevent it
  • Natural monopolies may form
  • Patents or legal protection
  • High Volume can be hard to overcome
  • Network externalities
  • Loyal following by being first on the market
 
You must monitor the strategy canvas and be ready to move to another Blue Ocean at some point when your ocean turns red.

May 24, 2006

Harvard Business Review on Doing Business In China - blog by Karl Janowski

There are eight articles in this book that were published in HBR.

The Great Translation - Phases of Entering China

The Chinese Negotiation - Eight elements of Chinese negotiation

The Hidden Dragons - China's companies that are global powers

Entering China: An Unconventional Approach - EJVs don't always make it

To Reach China's Consumers, Adapt to Guo Qing - the Chinese market

Trouble in Paradise - Case study of EJV problems

The Forgotten Strategy - Four forms of arbitage

All are listed in the China category of this blog.

May 19, 2006

The Forgotten Strategy - article by Pankaj Ghemawat - blog by Karl Janowski

This article was published in Harvard Business Review. 

The normal Chinese strategy is to create a mix of local products and services and global products and services to sell in China. The essence of the strategy is to determine the mix.

The forgotten Chinese strategy is to exploit the differences betweem regions. To do this there are four forms of arbitage:

  • Cultural Arbitage - opportunities that pop up because of local cultutre, example: fast food chains that serve both local and American food in foreign countries
  • Administrative Arbitage - legal and political differences open up opportunities, example: tax differences
  • Geographic Arbitage - although the world is getting smaller there are still several ways to use geographic arbitage as a strategy, example: crops or resources found only in one area  
  • Economic Arbitage -  exploit certain economic conditions, example: cheap labor in a country

At the same time companies expoit the differences they should also look to exploit the similarities between regions

Complex Aggregation Strategies - align business model not by having country by country strategies but by regional or business strategies and build global networks

May 14, 2006

Short-Term Results: The Litmus Test for Success in China – article by Rick Van - blog by Karl Janowski

This article was published in Harvard Business Review. 

Companies take the long term-approach too far.
 
Long-term results are best achieved through several measurable short-term gains.
 
Equity joint ventures – more managerial power
Cooperative joint ventures – less managerial power
 
Coke Story
When Coke started in China, it was not well received. Coke took control of its joint ventures by gaining majority equity when Pepsi still had cooperative joint ventures. Coke’s plan was simple: direct distribution.  It worked. Early success reinforced long-term commitment. Now Coke is way ahead of Pepsi in China.  

Patience and Longevity aren’t enough
Early moving is not as important as managerial capacity, critical mass scale, and product portfolio
 
Kraft has had a harder time succeeding than Nestle who introduced both global brands and products tailored for the Chinese such as Chinese flavored instant noodles.
 
Diving in and treading water can be just as expensive as getting in late
 
Aiming short term allows you to learn and adapt, plan to have some failures
 
Short-term success is the best litmus test for long-term success

April 30, 2006

Winning – book by Jack Welch – blog by Karl Janowski

This book covers a wide variety of general management topics.
 
Your mission statement should balance the possible and impossible.
 
What are the values you work by? List them and live them.
 
Reward both performance and behavior.
 
Candor – candor works because candor unclutters, but is against human nature
 
Jack uses differentiation in ranking employees 20% top, 70% middle, 10% falling. Protecting underperformers always backfires.  Rev up the 70% middle, don’t let them get lost or down
 
 
What Leaders Do
 
Constantly upgrade the team- evaluate, coach, build self confidence
Make people live and breath the vision
Give off energy and optimism
Trust with transparency and candor
Have courage to make unpopular calls
Probe and push with curiosity
Set the example
Celebrate
 
Hiring- How do you spot a winner?
 
3 Tests- integrity, intelligence, and maturity
 
Look for: positive energy, ability to energize others, ability to make tough decisions, to execute, and have passion for your job
 
 
For hiring high level managers: authenticity, anticipate future needs, surround themselves with good people, and resilience
 
People Management
Elevate HR to a position of power.
Use a rigorous non bureaucratic evaluation
Face straight into tough relationships
Have an effective mechanism (process and money) to motivate and train,
Treat the middle 70% as heart and soul of organization
Have a flatter organization with a clearly defined structure
 
3 Types of Firings
Integrity Violations – these are no brainers
Layoffs due to economics – every employee should know how the company is doing
Non-performance – Do it this way: no surprises, minimize humiliation,
 
3 Big Mistakes of Firing
Moving too fast
Not using enough candor
Taking too long
 
Change
Attach every change to a clear purpose
Hire and promote only true believers
Get rid of resisters
Seize every opportunity, even those from someone else’s misfortune
 
Crisis Management
Assume the problem is worse than it appears
There are no secrets in the world – be honest
You and your organizations handling will be portrayed in the worst light
There will be changes in process and people at the conclusion
You will get stronger from the crisis
 
 
Strategy
Come up with the big aha for your business – a sustainable competitive advantage
Put the right people in the right jobs
Seek out best practices to achieve your aha
 
Look at: current playing field, what you competition has been up to, what you’ve been up to
 
Budgeting
Do not use “Negotiated settlement or phony smile methods”
Need an operating plan first,
Bonuses should be about beating last years performance and competition
 
Start Up
Spend plenty upfront and put the most passionate people in the lead
Make a grand promotion of the importance of the startup
Err on the side of freedom, get of the venture’s back
 
Acquiring a Company Pitfalls
Thinking it will be a merger of equals
Not worrying about culture fit
A “reverse hostage situation” where you gave up too much power in negotiations
Integrating too timidly
The conqueror syndrome
Paying too much
Resistance in their employees
 
A part of making your customers sticky is meeting or exceeding their expectations, which is what Six Sigma helps you do.
 
Getting Promoted: Do deliver great performance far beyond expectations, don’t make your boss use political capital to champion you.
 
Your Boss
Top priority is competitiveness
Most are willing to accommodate work-life changes if you earned it
Bosses know that work-life issues are negotiated one on one over policy
Don’t turn for help too much, your life is your problem to solve

The Prisoners Dilemma – book by William Poundstone – blog by Karl Janowski

“Cooperate or defect?” that is the question. In The Prisoners Dilemma, William Poundstone takes us though the game and history explaining the origins of game theory. History of Von Neumann and the atomic bomb are used to show instances of the prisoner’s dilemma, a zero sum game.
 
act to maximize the minimun that will be left for you (cake cutters example)

minimax theorm - there is always a rational solution to a precisely defined conflict betwwen two people who interests are opposite. There is a rational solution that both parties can covince themselves that they can't do any better. Von Neumann published.   

maximin - the maximum row minimum

In the prisoners dilemma there is every temptation to defect. 
If the end is known, always tempting to cheat at the end.

 
 
Player 2
 
 
Defect
Cooperate
Player 1
Defect
DD
DC
Cooperate
CD
CC

There are twenty four (4*3*2*1) different combinations of payoffs.
 
Four that have temptation to defect (read DC as “you defect he cooperates”): 

DC>DD>CC>CD - Deadlock – both prefer to defect both try to get the other to cooperate 

DC>CC>DD>CD – Prisoners Dilemma – highest payoff is if you defect and the other coops  

DC>CC>CD>DD – Chicken – two drive at each other – defect is stay the course, coop is flee  

CC>DC>DD>CD – Stag Hunt – all hunt deer, or you defect and hunt rabbits but that hurts the group
 
Volunteer's dilemma is multiplayer chicken - lights go out who call the electric company?

Does an irrational player in chicken have an advantage?

Tit for Tat Strategy
Tit for tat - Cooperate on the first round and on the second mimic what they did on the first
 
Versions like 90% Tit for Tat – stops random pinging because you don’t always return a defect . An example is in the movie Godfather the Godfather “forgoes the vengeance of his son” to stop the violence
 
Tit for tat with random defection – can it sometimes beat tit for tat
 
Shubik’s Dollar Auction
Addiction in a game – has two rules
1.)    A dollar goes up for auction for the highest bid. Each bid must be higher than the last one and the game ends when there are no more bids in a time period.
2.)    The second highest bidder must pay the amount of his last bid and get nothing in return.  You don’t want to be the second highest bidder.
 
Winner-take all auction